Market
Azerbaijan-Russia diplomatic resolution on plane crash by June 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the governments of Azerbaijan and Russia or diplomatic agreements reported by major news agencies
Story
Aliyev: Azerbaijan Airlines Plane Crashed Near Aktau After Russian Ground Fire, 38 Dead
Dec 29, 2024, 11:54 AM
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev announced that the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) passenger plane that crashed near Kazakhstan's city of Aktau was heavily damaged due to ground fire while flying over Russian airspace near Grozny. He stated that the aircraft's fuselage was riddled with holes, dismissing theories that it had hit a flock of birds. The plane became uncontrollable due to electronic warfare and crashed during an attempted emergency landing on Wednesday, resulting in the deaths of 38 people. Aliyev emphasized that the plane was not intentionally shot down by Russia but expressed disappointment over false narratives from Russia regarding the cause of the crash.
View original story
Similar markets
Formal apology issued by Russia • 25%
Diplomatic relations strained • 25%
No significant change in relations • 25%
Compensation agreement reached • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Continued tensions • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Bilateral agreement • 25%
International mediation • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Compensation agreement • 25%
Formal apology from Russia • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No individuals identified • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Identified individuals but no legal action • 25%
Identified individuals and legal action taken • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
No compensation agreed • 25%
Partial compensation agreed • 25%
Full compensation agreed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Severed diplomatic relations • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations improve • 25%