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Majority use of Crimean Bridge by military freight by August 31?
4
Crimean Bridge•Kerch Bridge•Russian•Ukrainian Navy•Dmytro Pletenchuk•Pletenchuk•Kerch•Donetsk•Mariupol•Russian Black Sea•Ukraine•Ukrainian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Ukrainian and Russian governments, verified news reports
Story
Crimean Bridge No Longer Critical for Russian Military Logistics, 3/4 Load Rerouted, Says Ukrainian Navy
Jun 17, 2024, 12:00 PM
The Crimean Bridge, also known as the Kerch Bridge, is no longer a critical asset for Russian military logistics, according to Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk. Pletenchuk stated that the bridge is now used for less than a quarter of the total transiting cargo, with 3/4 load being rerouted through a ferry crossing in Kerch and a new railway between temporarily occupied Donetsk and Mariupol. He emphasized that destroying the bridge would not have the same impact as before, as a significant portion of the Russian Black Sea fleet is already out of action. This shift in logistics has diminished the strategic importance of the bridge in the ongoing conflict in southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian military struck the ferry crossing in late May, and over a three-month period this year, only one military freight used the bridge.
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Ukrainian long-range strike • 25%
Russian countermeasures • 25%
Third-party intervention • 25%
No significant military actions • 25%
Crimean Bridge destroyed • 25%
Crimean Bridge remains intact with no further damage • 25%
Crimean Bridge partially damaged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Pontoon bridge • 25%
Rebuilt permanent bridge • 25%
Air drops • 25%
Other methods • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Deploy a new ferry • 25%
Use alternative routes • 25%
Use air transport • 25%
Other • 25%