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Market
Impact on TikTok's U.S. User Base Post-Bill Implementation
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
TikTok Not Operational • 25%
User data released by TikTok or analytics firms covering social media trends.
Story
U.S. House Passes Bill to Ban TikTok Within 270 Days Unless ByteDance Divests
Apr 20, 2024, 02:45 PM
The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill that could lead to a ban on TikTok unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, divests from the app within 270 days. This legislation, which passed with a vote of 360-58, is part of a broader $95 billion foreign aid package that includes support for Ukraine and Israel. The bill, which has garnered bipartisan support, aims to address national security concerns regarding TikTok's ties to China. It stipulates a divestment period of one year for ByteDance, after which a ban could be enforced if compliance is not met. The bill is now headed to the Senate, where it is expected to pass, and President Biden has indicated he will sign it into law.
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Decrease in user base • 25%
No significant change • 25%
TikTok banned, no U.S. user base • 25%
Increase in user base • 33%
Decrease in user base • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Increase • 33%
Decrease • 33%
Unchanged • 34%
Increase in advertising revenue • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Decrease in advertising revenue • 33%
Increase in global user base • 25%
Decrease in global user base • 25%
No significant change in global user base • 25%
Shift in user demographics • 25%
Increases by more than 10% • 33%
Remains within 10% of current levels • 33%
Decreases by more than 10% • 34%
Significant reduction • 33%
Moderate reduction • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Increase in trust • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Decrease in trust • 34%
Increase in advertising spending on TikTok • 33%
Shift of ad budgets to other platforms • 33%
No significant change in advertiser behavior • 33%
Increases by more than 10% • 33%
Remains within 10% of current levels • 33%
Decreases by more than 10% • 34%
Successfully disrupted most operations • 33%
Partially successful in disruptions • 33%
Unsuccessful in disrupting operations • 34%