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Market
Impact of Wagner PMC in Africa by 2024
4
Russian Ministry of Defense•African Corps•Wagner PMC•US•Niger•Africa•Wagner•Mali•Central African Republic•Rwandan•UN•Faustian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased Stability • 25%
Increased Conflict • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Decreased Sovereignty of National Governments • 25%
Comprehensive reports from international human rights organizations and security analysts
Story
Russian 'African Corps' Forms with Wagner PMC, Forces Faustian Bargain in Africa
May 3, 2024, 12:30 PM
The Russian Ministry of Defense has reportedly established an 'African Corps' composed of operatives from the Wagner PMC, amid a US agreement to withdraw troops from Niger. This development coincides with recent geopolitical tensions in Africa, where Wagner mercenaries are active in several countries, including Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR). The presence of these mercenaries is part of a complex scenario involving various international and local forces, such as Rwandan soldiers and UN peacekeepers. The expansion of Wagner's influence in Africa has led to imperiled governments facing a Faustian bargain, raising concerns about their sovereignty.
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Support • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Opposition • 25%
Increased collaboration • 25%
Increased instability • 33%
Stability remains the same • 33%
Improved stability • 34%
Sudan • 20%
Somalia • 20%
Libya • 20%
Mali • 20%
None • 20%
High support • 33%
Moderate support • 33%
Low support • 34%
Increased tensions • 50%
No significant change • 50%
Increased commodity prices • 25%
Strained global supply chains • 25%
Negligible impact • 25%
Improved alternative markets • 25%
1-2 countries • 25%
3-5 countries • 25%
6+ countries • 25%
No expansion • 25%
Enhanced deterrence capability • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Decreased stability in the region • 34%
Escalation of conflict • 33%
De-escalation of conflict • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Significant escalation leading to broader conflict • 25%
Moderate escalation without broad conflict • 25%
Minimal impact with tensions easing • 25%
No change in current tensions • 25%