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How will the U.S.-Canada trade dispute over tariffs be resolved by December 31, 2025?
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Ontario•Doug Ford•United States•Donald Trump•Canadian•Trump•Canada•Ford•Justin Trudeau•American•Michigan•New York•Minnesota•Alberta•Quebec•Newfoundland and Labrador
Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Retaliatory Measures by Canada • 25%
U.S. Withdraws Tariffs • 25%
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Official announcements or agreements reported by major news outlets
Story
Ontario Premier Threatens U.S. Energy Cutoff Over Trump's 25% Tariffs Amid Border Security Talks
Dec 12, 2024, 07:33 PM
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has threatened to cut off energy exports to the United States if President-elect Donald Trump imposes a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports. This threat comes in response to Trump's pledge to impose tariffs unless Canada addresses his concerns about illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking. Ford's comments were made following a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other provincial premiers to discuss potential retaliatory measures. Ontario, Canada's most populous province, exported enough electricity in 2023 to power 1.5 million American homes, primarily to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota. Trump responded to Ford's threat by saying it was 'fine,' suggesting that the U.S. should not have to subsidize Canada. Meanwhile, other Canadian provinces, including Alberta, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador, have expressed reluctance to follow suit, preferring diplomatic solutions over retaliatory measures. Canada is also considering export taxes on key commodities like uranium, oil, potash, and critical minerals as part of its strategy if Trump initiates a trade war. Canada has promised more border security spending to address Trump's concerns.
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