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How will the current conflict between Hamas and Israel be resolved by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued conflict without resolution • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli or Hamas officials, or major news outlets
Story
Hamas Says Israeli Hostage Killed in Northern Gaza; IDF Reviewing Claim
Nov 23, 2024, 03:46 PM
On Saturday, Hamas's military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, announced that an Israeli female hostage was killed in northern Gaza due to Israeli attacks. Spokesperson Abu Obaida stated that after re-establishing contact with fighters assigned to protect Israeli prisoners, they confirmed the death of the hostage in an area under heavy Israeli bombardment. He added that another Israeli female hostage's life remains in imminent danger. Hamas released images allegedly showing the deceased hostage and holds Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his government, and military leaders fully responsible for the hostages' lives, accusing them of causing their suffering and death. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that they are examining the information and cannot confirm or deny it at this stage. IDF representatives are in contact with the hostage's family and are keeping them updated.
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New ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Partial resolution • 25%
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Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
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Other • 25%
Cease-fire agreement with hostage release • 25%
Cease-fire agreement without hostage release • 25%
No cease-fire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
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Hostages released, no ceasefire • 25%
Hostages released, ceasefire agreed • 25%
No hostages released, ongoing conflict • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage deal • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
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Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
