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How will the Alawite protests in Homs be resolved by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests end peacefully • 25%
Protests escalate • 25%
Protests continue with no resolution • 25%
Government intervention resolves protests • 25%
Credible news reports or statements from community leaders
Story
Syrian Government Launches Security Operation in Homs Targeting War Criminals and Alawite Protesters Amid Curfews
Jan 2, 2025, 08:46 AM
The Syrian government has initiated a large-scale security operation in the city of Homs, targeting war criminals and individuals involved in crimes who have refused to surrender their weapons and report to reconciliation centers. The operation, which began on Thursday, involves the Ministry of Interior in cooperation with the Military Operations Directorate. Residents of the Wadi al Dahab and Akrama neighborhoods have been urged to stay indoors and fully cooperate with security forces until the operation concludes. The campaign aims to apprehend war criminals and fugitives from justice, as well as to locate hidden weapons and ammunition. This operation follows recent unrest in the region, including protests by the Alawite minority and the imposition of curfews in nearby areas, targeting protest organizers among others.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Government Victory • 25%
Rebel Victory • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Assad regains control • 25%
Rebels maintain control • 25%
Rebels retain control • 25%
Government regains control • 25%
Stalemate persists • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Military Intervention • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Continued Protests • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
Stalemate situation • 25%
Rebels take full control • 25%
Assad retains control • 25%
Control fluctuates • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete failure • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Complete suppression of loyalists • 25%
Partial suppression with ongoing resistance • 25%
Loyalists regain influence • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Protests escalate into widespread violence • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Protests dissipate without major change • 25%
EU diplomatic intervention • 25%
UN sanctions imposed • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
