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How will NATO's military posture change due to Ukraine-Russia conflict by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in military presence • 25%
Decrease in military presence • 25%
No change • 25%
New military initiatives • 25%
Official NATO announcements or reports from major international news agencies
Story
U.S. Intelligence Downplays Nuclear Escalation Risk Despite Putin's Threats and Ukraine's ATACMS Use
Nov 28, 2024, 03:16 AM
U.S. intelligence officials have assessed that the risk of nuclear escalation remains low despite Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory using American-supplied ATACMS missiles, according to Reuters. The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to fire these long-range missiles deeper into Russia has not increased the likelihood of a nuclear attack, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly bellicose statements. Intelligence sources familiar with the matter indicate that while Russia might expand its sabotage campaign against Western countries, the threat of nuclear retaliation is considered minimal. This assessment, based on insights from five sources, comes after months of debate over the use of ATACMS missiles, concluding that fears of nuclear escalation were exaggerated.
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Maintain current stance • 33%
Increase support for Ukraine • 33%
Decrease support for Ukraine • 33%
Troop deployment • 25%
Training centers established • 25%
Logistical support only • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Increased military presence in Eastern Europe • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New strategic alliances • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New strategic direction • 25%
Increased military support to Ukraine • 25%
Diplomatic measures against Russia • 25%
Economic sanctions on Russia • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
NATO increases support for Ukraine • 25%
NATO maintains current support • 25%
NATO decreases support for Ukraine • 25%
No change in NATO's stance • 25%
Increase military presence in Eastern Europe • 25%
Increase diplomatic efforts • 25%
Impose new sanctions on Russia • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase in military presence • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Withdrawal of support • 25%
Increased military involvement • 25%
Continued current support levels • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with Russia • 25%
US expelled from NATO • 25%
NATO sanctions US • 25%
US policy unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in military support to Ukraine • 25%
Direct military engagement with Russia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in military support to Ukraine • 25%