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How will diplomatic tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia be resolved by December 31, 2025?
2
Ilham Aliyev•Russia•Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190•Aktau•Kazakhstan•Baku•Grozny•Russian•Aliyev•Azerbaijan
Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal apology from Russia • 25%
Compensation agreement • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
Official diplomatic statements or agreements reported in credible news sources
Story
Aliyev Blames Russia for Downing Azerbaijani Embraer 190, 38 Dead
Dec 29, 2024, 12:44 PM
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has accused Russia of being responsible for the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger plane near Aktau, Kazakhstan. The aircraft, en route from Baku to Grozny, was damaged by ground fire and electronic warfare while flying over Russian territory near Grozny, rendering it uncontrollable. The crash occurred on December 25 and resulted in the deaths of 38 people. Aliyev expressed disappointment with Russia's initial explanations, which suggested causes like a gas cylinder explosion or collision with birds, criticizing them as attempts to cover up the incident. He demanded that Russia admit guilt, punish those responsible, and pay compensation to Azerbaijan. The incident has intensified diplomatic tensions between the two countries.
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Improved relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic relations • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
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Compensation agreement reached • 25%
Formal apology issued by Russia • 25%
No significant change in relations • 25%
Diplomatic relations strained • 25%
Bilateral agreement • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
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Other • 25%
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Full compensation • 25%
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Diplomatic protests • 25%
Sanctions against Russia • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Military response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions imposed on Russia • 25%
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No • 50%
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Severed relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
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Improved relations • 25%