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Another assassination attempt on Russian officials by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Russian authorities or credible news reports
Story
Russia Arrests Four in Foiled Ukrainian Plot to Kill Senior Officers with Power Bank Bombs
Dec 26, 2024, 12:59 PM
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on December 26 that it had thwarted several plots by Ukrainian intelligence services to assassinate high-ranking Russian military officers and their families in Moscow. According to the FSB, four Russian citizens were detained in connection with the plans, which involved using bombs disguised as power banks or document folders to target the officials. In one case, a married Russian couple was allegedly recruited to kill the wife's own father, who works as a driver for top officials at the Russian Defense Ministry. The suspects reportedly planned to use improvised explosive devices and face possible life imprisonment if convicted. The announcement follows the killing of a top Russian general last week.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Disguised bombs • 25%
Other • 25%
Poisoning • 25%
Sniper attack • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Chief of Staff • 25%
Minister of Defense • 25%
Deputy Minister of Defense • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Cyber attacks attributed to Russia • 25%
Increased military actions in Ukraine • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic measures against Ukraine • 25%
