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Market
Will US unemployment rate fall below 3.5% by March 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports
Story
US Jobless Claims Fall to 211,000, Hitting 8-Month Low and Indicating Labor Market Strength
Jan 2, 2025, 01:33 PM
Initial jobless claims in the United States fell to 211,000 for the week ending December 28, 2024, down from the previous week's revised 220,000 and below economists' expectations of 222,000, marking the lowest level since March 2024. This 8-month low reflects the ongoing resilience of the US labor market amid relatively muted levels of job cuts. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 223,250 from the prior 226,500. Continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.844 million for the week ending December 21, 2024, from a revised 1.896 million previously, and below the forecasted 1.890 million.
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Below 4% • 25%
Above 5% • 25%
4.6% to 5% • 25%
4% to 4.5% • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
