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Will Ukraine withdraw its NATO membership application by December 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Ukrainian government or NATO, or verified reports from reputable news organizations
Story
Trump's Ukraine Plan: Territorial Concessions, NATO Exclusion, and Demilitarized Zone Proposal
Dec 4, 2024, 09:24 AM
Advisers to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump have outlined a peace plan for the Ukraine conflict that includes significant territorial concessions to Russia and excludes Ukraine's NATO membership. According to sources and reports, the proposals would see Ukraine cede large parts of its territory, including Crimea and regions in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia, to Russia. The plan also involves freezing the current front lines, a proposal supported by General Keith Kellogg, and potentially creating a demilitarized zone, as suggested by Vice President Jay D. These measures aim to address Russia's longstanding demand for Ukraine's non-alignment with NATO. The proposals are part of Trump's broader strategy to resolve the conflict and reshape U.S. foreign policy toward the region.
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No application • 25%
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No progress on membership • 25%
Membership invitation issued but not finalized • 25%
Membership negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ukraine receives full membership • 25%
NATO withdraws offer • 25%
NATO accelerates membership • 25%
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NATO delays membership • 25%
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Membership delayed • 25%
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Membership rejected • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
