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Market
Will Trump propose Canada as the 51st state by end of 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Statements from Donald Trump or official proposals in U.S. government records
Story
Canada Readies Retaliatory Tariffs, Including on Energy, Amid Trump's 25% Tariff Threat
Jan 12, 2025, 01:57 AM
Canada is preparing to implement retaliatory tariffs against the United States in response to potential 25% tariffs threatened by President-elect Donald Trump on Canadian exports. In preparation, Canada has developed a comprehensive list of American products that could be targeted, including steel, ceramics, and Florida orange juice. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly has stated that all options, including cutting off energy exports to the U.S., are being considered. This comes as Trump has also made remarks about Canada potentially becoming the 51st state, which has been met with strong opposition from Canadian leaders, including former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, who described the idea as an insult to Canadian sovereignty.
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Formal discussions initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No official response • 25%
Formal rejection by Canada • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Supportive • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Proposal under consideration • 25%
Canada becomes a U.S. state • 25%
Proposal formally rejected • 25%
No formal action taken • 25%
