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Will Jamaica experience hurricane-force winds from Rafael by November 6, 2024?
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National Hurricane Center•NHC•Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen•Caribbean Sea•Tropical Storm Rafael•Tropical Storm Warning•Jamaica•Hurricane Watch•Cayman Islands•Cuba•Gulf of Mexico
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
National Hurricane Center reports and local weather stations
Story
NHC Initiates Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen at 4:00 PM EST, Soon to be Rafael
Nov 3, 2024, 09:06 PM
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC18) located in the south-central Caribbean Sea at 4:00 PM EST. The system, with current winds of 35 mph moving NE at 7 mph, is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael by Monday and potentially reach hurricane status by Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Jamaica, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands. PTC18 is expected to impact Jamaica on Monday night into Tuesday, and then move towards western Cuba by Wednesday morning, where it may become a Category 1 hurricane. The system is projected to weaken as it enters the Gulf of Mexico due to cooler water, wind shear, and dry air.
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