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Will TIP militants conduct a significant attack in China by end of 2025?
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Turkistan Islamic Party•TIP•Syrian•China•Muslims•East Turkistan•Chinese•Assad•Beijing•Islamist Uyghur•Xinjiang•Syria•Afghanistan•Uyghur
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Verified reports from international news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or official Chinese government announcements
Story
Uyghur Militants Threaten China After Toppling Assad, Beijing Calls for Stability
Dec 14, 2024, 12:10 PM
Uyghur fighters from the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), a militant group that played a role in the recent toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, have vowed to turn their attention to China next. The group aims to 'liberate the Muslims of East Turkistan from the Chinese occupation.' This shift in focus comes after the collapse of the Assad regime, with TIP fighters now threatening Beijing in a video released on December 8. The TIP, which seeks to establish an Islamist Uyghur separatist state in Xinjiang, has been involved in conflicts in Syria and Afghanistan, gaining experience and potentially posing a new challenge to China's security. Beijing has expressed concern over the group's activities and has urged global action against Uyghur rebels, while also calling for stability in Syria.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Condemnation of TIP • 25%
Support for China's security measures • 25%
Calls for dialogue • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Significant destabilization • 25%
Minor destabilization • 25%
No impact • 25%
Countered by Chinese government • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) • 25%
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) • 25%
Islamic State (IS) • 25%
Other • 25%
