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Will there be additional downing incidents of US-supplied Ukrainian F-16s by Russian forces by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
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No • 50%
Reports from verified international defense agencies or media outlets
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Russia Claims First Downing of US-Supplied Ukrainian F-16 Over Zaporizhzhia
Dec 26, 2024, 04:03 PM
Russian forces claim to have shot down a US-supplied F-16 fighter jet of the Ukrainian Air Force over the Zaporizhzhia region using Russian air defense systems. The incident reportedly occurred as the aircraft was preparing to launch a missile strike. The claim was made by Russian state media and officials, including Vladimir Rogov, co-chair of Russia’s Coordinating Council for the Integration of New Regions. The downing has not been confirmed by Ukraine or any external sources. If true, this would mark the first time a Ukrainian F-16AM 'Fighting Falcon' has been downed by Russian air defenses in the conflict.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Decreased drone attacks • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased drone attacks • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Moderate improvement in air defenses • 25%
Significant improvement in air defenses • 25%
No noticeable improvement • 25%
Degradation of air defenses • 25%