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Market
Will the U.S. increase military presence in response to China's Hainan buildup by March 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of Defense
Story
China Invests $50 Billion in Hainan Island Military Buildup, Including Spy Outposts
Oct 31, 2024, 09:48 AM
China has invested $50 billion in building a high-tech military stronghold on Hainan Island in the South China Sea. The island, roughly the size of Taiwan, has seen the People's Liberation Army more than triple the value of its military infrastructure over the past two decades. This buildup includes advanced facilities and spy outposts aimed at neutralizing possible U.S. defenses in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. Admiral Samuel Paparo described the expansion as the largest military buildup since World War II, posing a profound challenge to the region and to U.S. allies and partners.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased military presence in Asia-Pacific • 25%
New diplomatic initiatives • 25%
Imposition of new sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%