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Will the U.S. implement new export controls on AI models by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of Commerce or similar government bodies
Story
OpenAI Urges U.S. to Boost AI Investment, Implement Export Controls to Compete with China Amid Trump Administration
Jan 13, 2025, 02:40 PM
OpenAI has released an 'Economic Blueprint' aimed at shaping the future of artificial intelligence in the United States, emphasizing the need for the country to maintain a competitive edge over China. The blueprint calls for increased AI investment and supportive regulation, highlighting the importance of semiconductors, data, and energy as key components for success in AI development. OpenAI urges the U.S. to act swiftly to attract an estimated $175 billion in global AI funds, warning that failure to do so could result in these resources flowing to China-backed projects. The company also suggests the implementation of export controls on AI models to prevent misuse by adversary nations. Additionally, OpenAI is engaging with the incoming Trump administration, with CEO Sam Altman having donated $1 million to Trump's inaugural fund, indicating a strategic move to influence AI policy under the new government.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
No new controls implemented • 25%
Moderate controls implemented • 25%
Strict controls implemented • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Stricter export controls • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Relaxed export controls • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Remove controls • 25%
Loosen controls • 25%
Maintain controls • 25%
Tighten controls • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
