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VisitWill the U.S. government default on its obligations by June 30, 2025?
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. Treasury Department or major news outlets
U.S. Treasury to Use Extraordinary Measures on January 21 to Avoid $36 Trillion Debt Limit Breach
Jan 17, 2025, 10:11 PM
Outgoing U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has announced that the Treasury Department will begin implementing 'extraordinary measures' on January 21 to avoid breaching the U.S. debt limit. This action comes as the U.S. government is set to reach its statutory borrowing limit of approximately $36 trillion on the same day. Yellen urged Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States, highlighting the uncertainty in how long these measures can sustain government operations. The measures include suspending investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund, which will be replenished once Congress addresses the debt ceiling.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Government default • 25%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Recession occurs • 33%
Economic growth accelerates • 34%
No significant impact • 33%
Debt ceiling not addressed • 34%
Debt ceiling raised • 33%
Temporary suspension of debt ceiling • 33%
Credit rating unchanged • 33%
Credit rating upgraded • 34%
Credit rating downgraded • 33%