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Will the US Air Force announce another cost revision for the Sentinel ICBM program by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the US Air Force or Department of Defense
Story
US Air Force's Sentinel ICBM Program Costs Soar 81% to $160 Billion
Jul 5, 2024, 09:45 PM
The cost of the US Air Force's Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program has significantly increased. Initially estimated at $78 billion in mid-2020, the program's cost projections have now soared to approximately $160 billion, representing an 81% increase. The Sentinel ICBM program, which aims to replace the aging Minuteman III nuclear missiles, has faced multiple cost revisions. Sources indicate that the program's cost per missile has swelled to $214 million. This substantial rise in costs is attributed to flawed command and launch segment estimates made during the Trump administration. Earlier estimates had placed the cost at $95.8 billion, and recent projections also noted a $141 billion figure.
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Yes • 50%
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Yes • 50%
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Yes • 50%
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Less than $214 million • 25%
$214 million to $230 million • 25%
$230 million to $250 million • 25%
More than $250 million • 25%
Less than $141 billion • 25%
$141 billion to $150 billion • 25%
$150 billion to $160 billion • 25%
More than $160 billion • 25%
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21-40% • 25%
41-60% • 25%
61% or more • 25%
Inflation • 25%
Supply chain issues • 25%
Technical challenges • 25%
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0 delays • 25%
1 delay • 25%
2 delays • 25%
3 or more delays • 25%
Initial testing phase • 25%
Midway testing phase • 25%
Final testing phase • 25%
Operational deployment • 25%