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Will the ICC change its indictment focus by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased focus on non-African leaders • 25%
Continued focus on African leaders • 25%
Balanced focus • 25%
Other • 25%
ICC announcements or credible news outlets
Story
Trump Plans Sanctions Against ICC Over Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders, Targeting Over 90% of African Indictments by January 20
Jan 4, 2025, 05:15 PM
President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) in response to its recent arrest warrants for Israeli leaders. These sanctions, which could target individual ICC personnel including judges, are expected to be announced shortly after Trump's inauguration on January 20. The ICC's actions have raised concerns about selective justice, as over 90% of its indictments have historically targeted African leaders. This situation has sparked debates regarding the court's legitimacy and its role as an impartial arbiter in international law.
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Similar markets
Neutral stance • 25%
Support ICC decision • 25%
Condemn ICC decision • 25%
No official response • 25%
Arrest warrants executed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Arrest warrants remain but not executed • 25%
Arrest warrants withdrawn • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Investigation deferred • 25%
Insufficient evidence to proceed • 25%
Full investigation launched • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No action taken • 25%
Convictions obtained • 25%
Investigation initiated • 25%
Charges filed • 25%