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Will the four-week average of US initial jobless claims exceed 240,000 by the end of August 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
US Department of Labor report on initial jobless claims
Story
US Jobless Claims Rise Sharply to 243,000, Continuing Claims Hit 1,867,000
Jul 18, 2024, 12:39 PM
The United States has reported a significant increase in jobless claims, with initial claims rising to 243,000 for the week ending July 13, 2024, surpassing the expected 229,000. This marks the highest level since August 2023. Continuing jobless claims also rose to 1,867,000 for the week ending July 6, 2024, higher than the anticipated 1,860,000 and the previous week's 1,847,000. The four-week average of jobless claims increased to 234,750 from 233,750. These figures indicate a potential slowdown in the labor market, with both initial and continuing claims reaching levels not seen since late 2021. Despite the rise, analysts caution that weekly numbers can be noisy and may not indicate a material shift in the labor market. Continuing claims are at their highest since November 2021.
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Below 215,000 • 25%
215,000 - 220,000 • 25%
220,001 - 225,000 • 25%
Above 225,000 • 25%