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Will tensions in the Taiwan Strait lead to a military confrontation involving Japan by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official government statements or reputable news outlets confirming a military confrontation
Story
Japanese Warship JS Sazanami Passes Through Taiwan Strait for First Time, NHK Reported
Sep 26, 2024, 01:42 AM
A Japanese warship has passed through the Taiwan Strait for the first time, according to Japanese media reports. The Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer JS Sazanami made the passage on Wednesday as part of a 'freedom of navigation' exercise. This move is seen as an attempt to send a message to China amid growing regional tensions. The transit occurred on the same day that China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific. Additionally, navy vessels from Australia and New Zealand also transited the waterway recently. NHK reported the event, and the Yomiuri newspaper cited multiple government sources.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased tensions • 25%
Decreased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
