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Market
Will Starmer's administration dismantle a major smuggling gang by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Press releases or official statements from UK law enforcement agencies
Story
Migrant Crossings Surge to 36,816 in 2024, Deadliest Year Amid Starmer's Vow to Curb Illegal Migration
Jan 1, 2025, 09:34 AM
In 2024, the number of migrants crossing the English Channel to the UK in small boats increased by 25% from the previous year, reaching a total of 36,816 arrivals. This figure marks the second-highest number of crossings since records began in 2018, though it remains below the record set in 2022 with 45,774 arrivals. The year was also noted as the deadliest on record for Channel crossings, with 77 migrants known to have died during the journey. The increase in crossings has placed additional pressure on the UK government, particularly on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who came to power in July with a promise to curb illegal migration. Starmer's administration has abandoned a previous plan to deport migrants to Rwanda, instead focusing on dismantling people-smuggling gangs. The surge in crossings has been attributed to smugglers using larger boats and more dangerous routes to maximize profits, often providing migrants with inadequate or no lifesaving equipment.
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Other • 25%
Increased convictions • 25%
Decreased convictions • 25%
No change • 25%
Shift to other illegal activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Adoption of new smuggling routes • 25%
Increased smuggling attempts • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Human rights organizations • 25%
Labour Party • 25%
Liberal Democrats • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful reduction in smuggling • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increase in smuggling activities • 25%
Policy reversal or modification • 25%