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Will Spain's government change its policy towards Catalonia within six months post-election?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements or policy documents from the Spanish government
Story
Catalonia Votes: 135 Seats Up for Grabs in Key Regional Election
May 12, 2024, 10:20 AM
Catalonia is gearing up for a pivotal regional election on Sunday, which is seen as a critical test for both the separatist movement and the stability of Spain's Socialist-led government. The election could potentially return an exiled separatist leader to power, which would challenge the anti-independence stance of the current government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. This election is significant as it will determine the future political landscape of the wealthy northeastern region and its relations with the rest of Spain. A total of 135 members will be elected through proportional representation.
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Strengthened • 33%
Weakened • 33%
Unchanged • 34%
Deterioration • 50%
No change or improvement • 50%
More autonomy sought • 25%
Closer ties with Madrid • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New independence bid • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic ties maintained but strained • 33%
Additional diplomatic actions taken • 33%
Diplomatic ties normalized • 34%
Increased • 50%
Unchanged • 50%