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Will SpaceX complete FAA-required investigation and propose corrective actions by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official FAA or SpaceX announcements
Story
FAA Orders SpaceX to Investigate Starship Explosion During Seventh Test Flight Over Turks and Caicos
Jan 17, 2025, 09:11 PM
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered SpaceX to conduct a formal investigation into the explosion of its Starship spacecraft during its seventh test flight on January 16. The incident occurred over the Caribbean, with debris reportedly falling on Turks and Caicos, prompting the FAA to activate a Debris Response Area and manage air traffic in the vicinity. No public injuries have been reported, but there are unconfirmed reports of public property damage on Turks and Caicos. The explosion happened approximately eight and a half minutes after takeoff, leading to the disintegration of the Starship's upper stage. SpaceX has indicated that a fire in the aft section of the spacecraft was the cause of the explosion. The FAA's directive requires SpaceX to identify the mishap's cause and propose corrective actions before resuming Starship launches.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No significant issues found • 25%
Minor issues found • 25%
Major issues found • 25%
Launch license suspended • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Warnings issued • 25%
Fines imposed • 25%
Other • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Human error • 25%
External interference • 25%