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Will Space One successfully launch a satellite with Kairos rocket by end of 2025?
3
Spaceport Kii•Kushimoto•Wakayama Prefecture•Kyoto•Taiwan National Space Center•Japan•Kairos rocket•Space One
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Space One or reputable space industry news outlets
Story
Space One's Kairos No. 2 Rocket Fails Again, Halting Japan's First Private Satellite Launch
Dec 18, 2024, 02:16 AM
Space One Co., a Tokyo-based space venture, launched its Kairos No. 2 rocket from the Spaceport Kii in Kushimoto, Wakayama Prefecture, at 11:00 a.m. on December 18. The rocket was carrying five small satellites, including those developed by a Kyoto-based emerging space company and the Taiwan National Space Center, with the aim of achieving Japan's first satellite launch by a private company alone. However, the flight was interrupted shortly after liftoff due to a determination that continuing the mission was not feasible. This marks the second consecutive failure for the Kairos rocket, following the explosion of the first unit in March. Space One is currently investigating the details of the failure and plans to hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on the same day to provide further information.
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Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Partial success (satellite deployed but not in intended orbit) • 25%
Launch postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Partial success (e.g., suborbital flight) • 25%
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Failure (e.g., explosion or termination) • 25%
Launch postponed or canceled • 25%
Successful launch and satellite deployment • 25%
Launch failure during ascent • 25%
Launch failure after liftoff but before orbit • 25%
No significant action reported • 25%
Announces a new launch date • 25%
Focuses on investigation and improvements • 25%
Seeks partnership or investment • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%