National Hurricane Center official reports

PTC18 Could Become Hurricane Rafael; Hurricane Watch for Cayman Islands, Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica

Nov 3, 2024, 11:38 AM

A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, designated as Invest 97L and now classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC18), is expected to develop into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Rafael within the next couple of days, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The system has a high likelihood of strengthening, with a 90% chance of development, and could potentially become a Category 1 hurricane before reaching Cuba. The NHC has issued a tropical storm warning for Jamaica and a hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands. Forecast models indicate that PTC18 will move northwestward, impacting Jamaica on Monday and approaching western Cuba around Wednesday. The system is then expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, where environmental conditions may cause weakening due to increased wind shear and dry air. Nevertheless, parts of Florida and other Gulf Coast states could experience increased rainfall, gusty winds, and hazardous marine conditions in the latter part of the week. Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate PTC18 today to gather more data and refine forecasts. The next name on the list for Atlantic storms is 'Rafael.'