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Will protests against FPÖ-ÖVP coalition in Austria lead to significant policy changes by June 30, 2025?
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Austrian•Alexander Van der Bellen•Herbert Kickl•Freedom Party•FPÖ•ÖVP•Social Democrats•SPÖ•Hofburg•Van der Bellen•Kickl•Austria•World War II
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements or credible news reports on policy changes
Story
Austrian President Tasks Far-Right Leader Kickl with Forming Government, Marking Post-WWII First
Jan 6, 2025, 12:40 PM
Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen has tasked Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), with forming a new government after coalition talks between the conservative People's Party (ÖVP), the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the liberals collapsed. In a meeting held on Monday at the Hofburg, Van der Bellen emphasized that his decision was not taken lightly and stated that he will ensure the Austrian constitution is respected during the government formation process. Kickl, who could become Austria's first FPÖ chancellor since World War II, will begin negotiations with the ÖVP, which has reversed its previous stance and signaled readiness to negotiate with the FPÖ. Protests have formed against a potential FPÖ and ÖVP coalition.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Coalition formed • 25%
Talks fail, new elections called • 25%
Talks fail, FPÖ forms minority government • 25%
FPÖ forms a government • 25%
New elections are held • 25%
ÖVP forms a government • 25%
SPÖ forms a government • 25%
Relations weaken • 25%
Major conflict arises • 25%
Relations strengthen • 25%
Relations remain stable • 25%
ÖVP-FPÖ • 25%
Other • 25%
SPÖ-FPÖ • 25%
ÖVP-SPÖ • 25%
Successful coalition formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks fail, no coalition • 25%
Talks extended beyond March 31 • 25%
