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Will Pokrovsk fall to Russian forces by October 31, 2024?
4
Pokrovsk•Russian•Russia•Ukraine•George Llewellyn•The Spectator•Southern Donbass•Bakhmut•Abdeevka•Responsible Statecraft
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Verified news reports from reputable sources such as The Spectator, BBC, or Reuters
Story
Capture of Pokrovsk Could Shift Donbass Control to Russia Before the Election
Sep 7, 2024, 07:19 AM
The capture of Pokrovsk by Russian forces is seen as a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to George Llewellyn, a journalist from The Spectator who recently visited the city, the fall of Pokrovsk would be a significant blow to Ukraine and could lead to the collapse of the frontlines before the election. The city’s fall would enable Russia to control almost all of Southern Donbass and potentially strike further to the north or east. The situation in Pokrovsk is reported to be more fragile than other contested areas such as Bakhmut or Abdeevka. Responsible Statecraft also highlighted the potential disaster for Ukraine if Pokrovsk falls.
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Russian forces capture Pokrovsk • 25%
Ukrainian forces successfully defend Pokrovsk • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change in control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Russian control • 25%
Ukrainian control • 25%
Contested • 25%
Other • 25%
Russian forces capture Pokrovsk • 25%
Ukrainian forces hold Pokrovsk • 25%
Stalemate, no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
