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Will OPEC+ unwind production cuts by March 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from OPEC+ or major news outlets like Reuters or Bloomberg
Story
IEA Predicts Oil Market Oversupply in 2025 Despite OPEC+ Supply Delays
Dec 12, 2024, 09:05 AM
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecasts for the global oil market, predicting an oversupply in 2025 despite OPEC+'s decision to delay supply increases. The IEA trimmed its 2024 world oil demand growth forecast to 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) from a previous estimate of 920,000 bpd. However, it raised its 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million bpd, citing China's stimulus measures as a key factor. The agency also noted that non-OPEC+ supply is expected to rise by almost 1.5 million bpd in both 2024 and 2025, leading to a 'comfortable' supply situation in the oil market. If OPEC+ were to unwind its voluntary production cuts from the end of March 2025, the IEA predicts a supply overhang of 950,000 bpd. This scenario suggests that even with the delay in supply cuts, the oil market will face a glut next year.
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