Loading...
Market
What will be the main factor influencing oil oversupply in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
OPEC+ production decisions • 25%
Non-OPEC+ supply increase • 25%
China's economic measures • 25%
Other factors • 25%
Analysis from IEA, OPEC reports, or major financial news outlets
Story
IEA Predicts Oil Market Oversupply in 2025 Despite OPEC+ Supply Delays
Dec 12, 2024, 09:05 AM
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecasts for the global oil market, predicting an oversupply in 2025 despite OPEC+'s decision to delay supply increases. The IEA trimmed its 2024 world oil demand growth forecast to 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) from a previous estimate of 920,000 bpd. However, it raised its 2025 world oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million bpd, citing China's stimulus measures as a key factor. The agency also noted that non-OPEC+ supply is expected to rise by almost 1.5 million bpd in both 2024 and 2025, leading to a 'comfortable' supply situation in the oil market. If OPEC+ were to unwind its voluntary production cuts from the end of March 2025, the IEA predicts a supply overhang of 950,000 bpd. This scenario suggests that even with the delay in supply cuts, the oil market will face a glut next year.
View original story
Similar markets
OPEC+ production decisions • 25%
Global economic conditions • 25%
Geopolitical tensions • 25%
Technological advancements in energy • 25%
Middle East tensions • 25%
Global economic slowdown • 25%
OPEC production decisions • 25%
Other • 25%
Geopolitical tensions • 25%
Economic growth • 25%
Technological advancements • 25%
Environmental policies • 25%
Geopolitical tensions • 25%
OPEC+ production changes • 25%
Global economic conditions • 25%
Other factors • 25%
U.S. sanctions on Iran • 25%
OPEC production changes • 25%
Russian oil supply • 25%
Other factors • 25%
Permian Basin • 25%
Bakken Formation • 25%
Eagle Ford Shale • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased • 25%
Decreased • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
No revision • 25%
United States • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
Oil prices increase by more than 10% • 25%
Oil prices increase by less than 10% • 25%
Oil prices remain stable • 25%
Oil prices decrease • 25%
Russia • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Above 1.74 million bpd • 25%
1.74 million bpd • 25%
Below 1.74 million bpd • 25%
Other • 25%