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Market
Will Nigel Farage win Clacton constituency in the next UK General Election?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official election results from the UK Electoral Commission
Story
Nigel Farage's Reform UK Hits 20%, Overtakes Conservatives at 19% in Polls
Jun 21, 2024, 01:47 PM
Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party is experiencing a surge in support, with multiple polls indicating the party has overtaken the Conservatives. Recent polling data from various sources, including Redfield & Wilton, BMG, and YouGov, show Reform UK consistently at around 19-20%, while the Conservatives are trailing slightly behind. Labour remains the leading party in most polls, with a substantial lead at around 42%. In some constituencies, such as Clacton, Farage is leading by a significant margin, with one poll showing him ahead by 27 points. The Reform UK party has also outlined a new policy platform that includes protecting free speech, prohibiting 'transgender ideology' in schools, and scrapping diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies. Additionally, Reform UK has outperformed the Conservatives in campaign donations, raising more funds in the second week of the election campaign. Labour is predicted to form the next government with 71% of voters expecting a Labour government.
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Similar markets
Less than 20% • 25%
20% to 40% • 25%
40% to 60% • 25%
More than 60% • 25%
Reform UK • 25%
Conservative Party • 25%
Labour Party • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Runs as Reform UK candidate • 33%
Runs as independent candidate • 33%
Does not run • 33%
Conservative Party • 25%
Labour Party • 25%
Liberal Democrats • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Wins a seat • 33%
Loses narrowly • 33%
Loses by a large margin • 33%
Labour • 25%
Conservative • 25%
Liberal Democrats • 25%
Other • 25%
