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Will New Glenn successfully deploy a commercial satellite by Q1 2026?
3
Blue Origin•Jeff Bezos•New Glenn rocket•Cape Canaveral•Florida•Elon Musk•SpaceX•Atlantic Ocean•JeffBezos
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official Blue Origin press release or reputable news source covering the mission
Story
Blue Origin's 98-Meter New Glenn Reaches Orbit on Maiden Flight; Booster Landing Fails
Jan 16, 2025, 11:50 AM
Blue Origin, the aerospace company founded by Jeff Bezos, successfully launched its massive 98-meter-tall New Glenn rocket into orbit on its maiden flight early Thursday morning from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The uncrewed rocket lifted off at 2:03 a.m. EST, marking a significant milestone for the company as it aims to compete with Elon Musk's SpaceX in the commercial space market. Despite the successful launch and orbital insertion, the first-stage booster failed to land on a platform in the Atlantic Ocean as planned. Elon Musk congratulated Jeff Bezos and the Blue Origin team on reaching orbit, tweeting, 'Well done, @JeffBezos, and the Blue Origin team!'
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Q1 2025 • 25%
Q2 2025 • 25%
Q3 2025 • 25%
Q4 2025 or later • 25%
Failed launch • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful launch, failed landing • 25%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
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Partial Success • 25%
Success • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Successful launch • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Successful flight but failed landing • 25%
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Successful flight and landing • 25%
