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Market
Will migrant arrivals in Northern Ireland significantly increase by the end of 2024?
5
High Court•Belfast•Illegal Migration Act•Rwanda•Northern Ireland•Windsor Framework•ECHR•Good Friday Agreement
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Migration statistics from the UK Home Office
Story
Northern Ireland Court Blocks Deportation of Asylum Seekers to Rwanda
May 13, 2024, 01:09 PM
A recent ruling by the High Court in Belfast has led to the disapplication of the Illegal Migration Act's provisions that allowed for the detention and deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda in Northern Ireland. This decision was influenced by the Windsor Framework, which aims to ensure that the laws are compatible with the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). The court also noted that these provisions breached the Good Friday Agreement. This ruling is expected to lead to a significant increase in the number of migrants in Northern Ireland, and a government appeal is anticipated.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase in support facilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in local opposition • 25%
Policy reform • 25%
Zero • 33%
Less than 100,000 • 33%
More than 100,000 • 33%
Appeal the decision • 33%
Amend the Illegal Migration Act • 33%
Seek alternative agreements • 34%
