Official announcement from Lula da Silva or his party

Lula Leads 2026 Election Scenarios Despite Health Concerns, Haddad Favored if Lula Steps Down

Dec 12, 2024, 10:56 AM

A recent Genial/Quaest poll has revealed that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), currently serving his third term, would defeat his potential opponents in hypothetical second-round scenarios for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Despite health concerns following an emergency surgery, Lula would secure 51% of the vote against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who is ineligible until 2030, with Bolsonaro receiving 35%. Against São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), Lula would lead with 52% to Freitas's 26%. Lula also emerges victorious against businessman Pablo Marçal (PRTB) with 52% to 27%, and against Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) with 54% to 20%. If Lula does not run, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) would take the lead, defeating Bolsonaro with 42% to 35%, Freitas with 44% to 25%, Marçal with 42% to 28%, and Caiado with 45% to 19%. The survey also indicated that 52% of respondents believe Lula should not seek re-election, a slight decrease from the 58% recorded in October. In the event of Lula's absence from the race, Haddad is favored by 27% to replace him, followed by Ciro Gomes (PDT) at 17% and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) at 14%. On the opposition side, without Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) is seen as the strongest candidate against Lula with 21% support, followed by Marçal at 18% and Freitas at 17%. Lula's voting potential stands at 52%, while Bolsonaro faces a 57% rejection rate.