Loading...
Market
Will Keir Starmer become Prime Minister after July 2024 UK general election?
5
YouGov•Labour•Tony Blair•Conservatives•Cabinet•Jeremy Hunt•Penny Mordaunt•Grant Shapps•Liberal Democrats•SNP•Greens•Plaid Cymru•Reform UK•UK•Keir Starmer•Downing Street•Tory
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement by the UK Prime Minister's Office
Story
YouGov Poll Projects Historic 194-Seat Labour Landslide in July 2024 Election
Jun 3, 2024, 04:03 PM
A new YouGov MRP poll projects a historic landslide victory for Labour in the upcoming July 2024 general election. The poll, which surveyed over 50,000 people, predicts Labour will secure 422 seats, resulting in a 194-seat majority. This would surpass the landslide victory achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 and mark the largest Labour majority in over 100 years. The Conservatives are projected to suffer their worst defeat since 1906, securing only 140 seats. Notably, 12 Cabinet ministers, including Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, and Grant Shapps, are expected to lose their seats. The Liberal Democrats are predicted to win 48 seats, the SNP 17, the Greens 2, Plaid Cymru 2, and Reform UK none. This projection indicates a significant shift in the UK's political landscape, with Labour poised for a historic win. Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street as Labour leader, marking a significant Tory wipeout.
View original story
Similar markets
Keir Starmer • 33%
Current Conservative Leader • 33%
Another candidate • 33%
Remains PM • 50%
Steps down or replaced • 50%
Keir Starmer remains leader • 33%
Angela Rayner becomes leader • 33%
Other candidate becomes leader • 33%
Elected as Prime Minister • 33%
Remains Labour Leader without PM position • 33%
Steps down or is replaced as Labour Leader • 33%
Keir Starmer • 33%
Angela Rayner • 33%
Other • 34%
Continues as Leader • 50%
Steps Down or Replaced • 50%
