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Will Rishi Sunak remain Conservative Party leader by end of 2024?
5
Blackpool South•Labour•Chris Webb•Conservative•Conservatives•Reform UK•Scott Benton•Mark Menzies•Rishi Sunak
Resolution / Starting Odds
Continues as Leader • 50%
Steps Down or Replaced • 50%
Official announcements from the Conservative Party
Story
Labour's Chris Webb Wins Blackpool South with 26.3% Swing, Tories Second, Reform UK Close
May 3, 2024, 04:10 AM
In the recent Blackpool South by-election, Labour candidate Chris Webb secured a significant victory, receiving 10,825 votes, which amounted to 58.9% of the vote share. This win marked a substantial swing from the Conservatives to Labour, calculated at 26.3%, making it one of the largest swings in postwar electoral history. The Conservatives, who previously held the seat from 1997 to 2019, came in second with 3,218 votes, narrowly ahead of Reform UK, which garnered 3,101 votes. The by-election was influenced by scandals involving former Conservative MPs Scott Benton and Mark Menzies. This result has been described as a 'seismic' victory for Labour and a major setback for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, whose party also faced substantial losses in local council elections, with projections indicating over 500 lost seats.
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Remains PM • 50%
Steps down or replaced • 50%
Rishi Sunak remains leader • 33%
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Other candidate becomes leader • 34%
Rishi Sunak • 25%
Nigel Farage • 25%
Boris Johnson • 25%
Other • 25%
Stronger support from party members • 33%
Weaker support from party members • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Rishi Sunak • 25%
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Other • 25%
Resignation • 50%
Continuation • 50%