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Will Iran conduct a major military operation in response to Ismail Haniyeh's assassination by October 31, 2024?
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Hamas•Ismail Haniyeh•Tehran•Haniyeh•Revolutionary Guard Corps•Middle Eastern•American•The New York Times
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
News reports from reputable sources such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh Assassinated by Smuggled Bomb in Tehran on Wednesday
Aug 1, 2024, 01:39 PM
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated on Wednesday by an explosive device that was covertly smuggled into a Tehran guesthouse where he was staying. The bomb, which had been hidden approximately two months ago, was detonated remotely once it was confirmed that Haniyeh was inside. The guesthouse is managed and protected by the Revolutionary Guard Corps. This information comes from seven Middle Eastern officials, including two Iranians, and an American official, as reported by The New York Times.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Yes • 50%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
Military action • 25%
Intelligence operations • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No response • 25%
Sever diplomatic ties with Israel • 25%
Increase support to Hamas • 25%
Impose economic sanctions on Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Tensions with Israel • 25%
Increased Tensions with Other Countries • 25%
No Significant Diplomatic Change • 25%
Other • 25%
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Yes • 50%
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No retaliation • 25%
Minor retaliation • 25%
Significant retaliation • 25%
Major retaliation • 25%