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Will Iran announce disciplinary actions against senior IRGC Quds Force officials by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera, official Iranian government announcements
Story
Iran Arrests Dozens After Assassination of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh
Aug 3, 2024, 04:22 AM
Iran has arrested more than two dozen individuals, including senior intelligence officers, military officials, and staff workers at a military-run guesthouse in Tehran, following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The arrests come in response to a significant security breach that enabled the killing. The crackdown highlights Iran's effort to address the breach and hold those responsible accountable. The guesthouse is run by the IRGC Quds Force.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Qaani replaced • 25%
Deputy promoted • 25%
No changes • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Hossein Salami replaced • 25%
New Deputy Commander appointed • 25%
No changes in leadership • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Replaced with more hardline leaders • 25%
Replaced with more moderate leaders • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased influence of Revolutionary Guard • 25%
Sinwar replaced • 25%
Deif replaced • 25%
Nasrallah replaced • 25%
No changes • 25%
Esmail Qaani remains • 25%
New Leader Appointed • 25%
Interim Leadership • 25%
No Change Announced • 25%
