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Will Iran allow additional IAEA inspections at Fordow by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official IAEA reports or statements confirming additional inspections
Story
Iran Agrees to Increased IAEA Inspections at Fordow Nuclear Site Amid 60% Uranium Enrichment and Sanctions Threat from UK, France, Germany
Dec 12, 2024, 07:19 PM
Iran has agreed to increase inspections at its Fordow nuclear facility, as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This decision comes amid rising concerns over Iran's uranium enrichment activities, particularly its production of uranium enriched to 60% purity. In response to this development, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany have stated their readiness to reinstate sanctions against Iran if necessary. Iranian officials have indicated that while they are open to enhanced oversight, they will not accept additional monitoring beyond their existing commitments as long as sanctions remain in place. The discussions around these developments include insights from international relations experts and former diplomats.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Partial Compliance • 25%
Non-Compliance • 25%
Sanctions Reinstated • 25%
Full Compliance • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Exceeds 60% but below weapons-grade • 25%
Remains below 60% • 25%
Reaches weapons-grade • 25%
Reaches 60% • 25%
5% to 20% • 25%
Weapons-grade • 25%
Above 20% but below weapons-grade • 25%
Below 5% • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increase enrichment further • 25%
Pause enrichment • 25%
Other • 25%
