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Will IDF capture all targeted villages in southern Lebanon by October 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the IDF and major news outlets like BBC, CNN, and Reuters
Story
IDF Launches Ground Operation 'Northern Arrows' Against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon
Sep 30, 2024, 11:03 PM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have initiated a ground operation in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah positions. The operation, named 'Northern Arrows,' is described as limited, localized, and targeted, focusing on several villages near the border that pose an immediate threat to Israel. The IDF has confirmed that this is a response to Hezbollah's activities in the area, with artillery, airstrikes, and mechanized forces supporting the ground attacks.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful with no civilian casualties • 25%
Successful with civilian casualties • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
No airstrikes carried out • 25%
Complete withdrawal of IDF • 25%
Ongoing operations without major change • 25%
Escalation to full-scale conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence with reduced activity • 25%
Escalation of operations • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
