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What will be the outcome of the IDF's 'Northern Arrows' operation in southern Lebanon by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Official statements from the IDF and major news outlets like BBC, CNN, and Reuters
Story
IDF Launches Ground Operation 'Northern Arrows' Against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon
Sep 30, 2024, 11:03 PM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have initiated a ground operation in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah positions. The operation, named 'Northern Arrows,' is described as limited, localized, and targeted, focusing on several villages near the border that pose an immediate threat to Israel. The IDF has confirmed that this is a response to Hezbollah's activities in the area, with artillery, airstrikes, and mechanized forces supporting the ground attacks.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah launches successful retaliation • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Hezbollah gains strength • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah maintains current strength • 25%
IDF withdraws without major impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah maintains current strength • 25%
Hezbollah gains strength • 25%
Other • 25%
IDF takes full control • 25%
Hezbollah retains control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
IDF achieves significant military gains • 25%
Hezbollah retains significant capabilities • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah moderately weakened • 25%
Hezbollah minimally affected • 25%
No significant impact on Hezbollah • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant reduction in Hezbollah's capabilities • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Hezbollah's capabilities increase • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah moderately weakened • 25%
Hezbollah minimally impacted • 25%
Hezbollah unaffected • 25%
Complete withdrawal of IDF • 25%
Ongoing operations without major change • 25%
Escalation to full-scale conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence with reduced activity • 25%
Escalation of operations • 25%
Stalemate • 25%