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Will human error be identified as the primary cause of the JMSDF helicopter collision by the end of 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official investigation reports released by Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force or aviation safety boards
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Two JMSDF Helicopters Missing, Likely Collided; No Mechanical Failures Found
Apr 22, 2024, 05:48 AM
Two Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) helicopters are reported missing near the Izu island chain. A senior MSDF official confirmed that there was no foreign involvement in the incident. Subsequent investigations revealed that the flight data recorders from the helicopters showed no signs of mechanical failure or abnormal data, suggesting the helicopters likely collided with each other. Defense officials have ruled out aircraft issues as a contributing factor to the crash.
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Pilot error • 30%
Mechanical failure • 30%
Weather conditions • 20%
Other factors • 20%
Published • 50%
Not Published • 50%
Crash results published by end of 2024 • 50%
Crash results not published by end of 2024 • 50%
External threat confirmed • 33%
Internal breach confirmed • 33%
Inconclusive results • 34%
Mechanical failure • 33%
Pilot error • 33%
External factors • 34%
Results released • 50%
Results not released • 50%
UN investigation team involved • 25%
EU investigation team involved • 25%
Independent international experts involved • 25%
No international involvement • 25%
