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Market
Will Gordon Black be released or transferred to the U.S. by February 19, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the U.S. Department of State or Russian government
Story
US Soldier Gordon Black Loses Appeal in Russia, Faces Nearly Four-Year Sentence for Theft and Threats
Aug 19, 2024, 05:27 AM
Gordon Black, a U.S. Army Sergeant, has lost his appeal against a nearly four-year sentence in a Russian penal colony. The Primorsky Krai Court upheld the lower court's decision, which sentenced Black to three years and nine months for theft and making threats to kill his girlfriend. The charges stemmed from an incident where Black was found guilty of stealing $113 from his girlfriend and making threats against her life. The appeal rejection was reported by RIA and Interfax.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Before August 31, 2025 • 25%
Between September 1, 2025 and August 31, 2026 • 25%
Between September 1, 2026 and August 31, 2027 • 25%
After September 1, 2027 • 25%
Formal diplomatic protest • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Other actions • 25%
No action • 33%
Diplomatic negotiations • 33%
Sanctions or other measures • 33%
Supportive • 33%
Neutral • 33%
Opposed • 33%
Appeal successful, sentence reduced • 25%
Appeal successful, sentence overturned • 25%
Appeal unsuccessful, sentence upheld • 25%
No further appeals or legal actions • 25%