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Market
Will Elon Musk acquire TikTok's U.S. operations by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement from Elon Musk or ByteDance
Story
China Considers Selling TikTok U.S. to Elon Musk Amid Looming Ban; TikTok Denies Reports
Jan 14, 2025, 04:02 PM
Elon Musk is reportedly in discussions to acquire the U.S. operations of TikTok, as China considers selling the popular video-sharing app, owned by ByteDance, to prevent an impending ban in the United States. Chinese officials are evaluating the option of Musk's company X (formerly Twitter) taking control of TikTok's U.S. operations and possibly integrating the two platforms. The ban, driven by national security concerns over TikTok's Chinese ownership, is set to be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court by January 19. TikTok has denied these reports, calling them "pure fiction." Market analysts estimate that a deal could cost Musk between $40 billion and $50 billion, similar to the amount he paid for Twitter in 2022. Musk's growing alliance with former President Donald Trump is noted as a factor in the potential deal.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Another U.S. company • 25%
No acquisition • 25%
Elon Musk • 25%
Non-U.S. company • 25%
US Tech Company • 25%
No Sale • 25%
Private Equity Firm • 25%
Non-US Company • 25%
Elon Musk's company X • 25%
Another US-based company • 25%
Banned without sale • 25%
Remains under ByteDance ownership • 25%
No sale • 25%
Another U.S. entity • 25%
Frank McCourt's consortium • 25%
Other • 25%