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Will any of the 133,000 conscripts be deployed to Ukraine by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Russian Defense Ministry, verified news reports from credible sources such as Reuters, BBC, or AP
Story
Putin Orders 133,000 Conscripts Amid 650,000 Russian Casualties in Ukraine
Sep 30, 2024, 08:31 AM
As the war in Ukraine approaches its third anniversary, Russian casualties have exceeded 650,000, including 1,170 more soldiers recently and 1,250 soldiers along with 27 armoured combat vehicles in one day. President Vladimir Putin faces increasing pressure to deploy conscripts. In response, Putin has signed a decree for autumn conscription, ordering 133,000 citizens aged 18 to 30 to be drafted from October 1 to December 31. The Russian Defense Ministry has emphasized that these conscripts will not be sent to Ukraine. However, concerns remain about whether they will have to fight inside Russia. The conscription age has been raised from 27 to 30 as part of the new law.
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Increase age limit • 25%
Decrease age limit • 25%
Introduce exemptions • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased military enrollment • 25%
Public backlash • 25%
Policy revision • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
50,000 to 100,000 • 25%
100,001 to 150,000 • 25%
More than 150,000 • 25%
Support current policy • 25%
Pressure to lower age • 25%
Encourage other recruitment methods • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increase recruitment efforts • 25%
Focus on training programs • 25%
Introduce incentives for enlistment • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
France • 25%
United States • 25%
Multiple countries • 25%
No countries agree • 25%
