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Will any Arab Gulf state declare neutrality in Israel-Iran conflict by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Arab Gulf states, verified reports from credible news sources
Story
Report: Iran Warns U.S. Allies Not to Aid Israel Attacks, Threatens Retaliation
Oct 10, 2024, 10:11 PM
According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, Iran has issued secret warnings through diplomatic backchannels to oil-rich Arab Gulf states and other U.S. allies in the Middle East, threatening to target them if their territories or airspace are used for an attack on Iran. Tehran cautioned that nations assisting Israel in any military action against Iran could face retaliation and stated it would "respond accordingly." As a result, some Arab states have informed the United States that they will not support any attacks on Iran. These developments highlight the heightened tensions in the region amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Saudi Arabia • 20%
Qatar • 20%
UAE • 20%
Bahrain • 20%
Kuwait • 20%
Iran attacks an Arab Gulf state • 25%
Arab Gulf state attacks Iran • 25%
Both sides engage in military conflict • 25%
No escalation occurs • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 20%
Qatar • 20%
UAE • 20%
Bahrain • 20%
Kuwait • 20%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic relations severed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Turkey • 25%
Egypt • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%