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What will be the nature of military conflict involving Iran and an Arab Gulf state by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran attacks an Arab Gulf state • 25%
Arab Gulf state attacks Iran • 25%
Both sides engage in military conflict • 25%
No escalation occurs • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official military statements
Story
Iran Secretly Warns Arab Gulf States and U.S. Allies Against Aiding Israel in Attacks
Oct 11, 2024, 01:00 PM
Iran has issued a secret warning to U.S. allies in the Middle East, threatening to target oil-rich Arab Gulf states and other American allies if their territories or airspace are used for an attack on Iran. This threat, conveyed through diplomatic backchannels, has prompted Arab states to inform the U.S. that they will not assist in any attack on Iran. The warnings, reported by the Wall Street Journal, emphasize the potential for significant regional instability if an attack on Iran is facilitated by these countries. Iran specifically warned against aiding Israel in any military action.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
No conflict occurs • 25%
Airstrike • 25%
Missile exchange • 25%
Cyberattack • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran Victory • 25%
Israel Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 25%
United Arab Emirates • 25%
Bahrain • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Israel • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran attacks Israel • 25%
Hezbollah attacks Israel • 25%
Hamas attacks Israel • 25%
No major action • 25%
Airstrike • 25%
Missile attack • 25%
Drone attack • 25%
Other • 25%
Air strikes • 25%
Naval confrontation • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Other • 25%