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Will another significant Gulf storm affect natural gas prices by November 30, 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Weather reports and financial news outlets tracking natural gas prices
Story
U.S. Natural Gas Futures Surge to $2.50, Highest Levels Since June 2024, Up 20%
Sep 23, 2024, 02:07 PM
U.S. natural gas futures have experienced a significant increase, reaching their highest levels since June 2024. For the week ending September 20, natural gas futures prices rose by $0.13 (6%), from $2.31 to $2.43. The November contract also saw an increase of $0.13, from $2.59 to $2.72. The rise in prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including short covering and concerns over a second Gulf storm in September. Net long positions in U.S. natural gas rose by 13 billion cubic feet (25%) due to a decrease in short positions. The price increase has also been reflected in a 7% jump to a 12-week high, driven by storm worries. U.S. natural gas futures hit $2.50 for the first time since July, and prices have gone up by 20% recently.
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Increase > 20% • 25%
Increase 10-20% • 25%
Increase < 10% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No significant disruption • 25%
Minor disruption (less than 5% production loss) • 25%
Moderate disruption (5-15% production loss) • 25%
Severe disruption (more than 15% production loss) • 25%
Below $2.00 • 25%
$2.00 - $2.50 • 25%
$2.51 - $3.00 • 25%
Above $3.00 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Before June 2025 • 25%
June to August 2025 • 25%
September to November 2025 • 25%
No major disruption by end of 2025 • 25%
Below $2.00 • 25%
$2.00 - $2.50 • 25%
$2.51 - $3.00 • 25%
Above $3.00 • 25%